While the employee benefits provision of the Affordable Care Act will kick in next year, the individual mandate is currently in place. And even though it may be the law of the land for now, that doesn't mean it's guaranteed to stay in place for the long-term, according to economic policy advisor Jed Graham.
The Investors Business Daily columnist and author indicated that the ultimate fate of the ACA largely depends on young people and whether they decide to sign up for coverage. Thus far, approximately 2 million people have signed up for a qualified health plan through the federal or state-based exchanges. That's well short of the 7 million target that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services hope to achieve before March 31.
"If they stay out of the exchanges or opt into the separate catastrophic-plan pool, insurers may seek sizable 2015 premium hikes for ObamaCare's main pool," Graham noted, referring to adults ranging in age from 18 to 34, who tend to be healthier.
Noted conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer recently indicated in an opinion piece that if insurers increase premiums substantially, it may force the government to bail out providers due to few people being able to afford the cost. If Republicans in the House and Senate refuse to make the necessary funds available, it could ultimately be the death knell of the ACA.
"Shrinking revenues and rising costs could bring on the 'death spiral' – an unbalanced patient pool forcing huge premium increases (to restore revenue) that would further unbalance the patient pool as the young and healthy drop out," said Krauthammer.
Other yet-to-be-determined issues that could be the demise of the ACA, according to Graham, include how to re-initiate the mandate penalty among those who've been relinquished from it and if the employer mandate results in business owners cutting their workers' hours in order to offset higher health care costs.
