Since 2009, annual healthcare cost growth has risen approximately 4 percent, far below historical averages. But by the time the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) is five years removed from going into effect, spending is projected to increase considerably, a recent study asserts. Ultimately, this could impact business owners and the employee benefits they provide for their workers.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, which conducted the analysis, annual healthcare costs have the potential to jump by more than 7 percent by the end of 2019. The authors point out that some of the biggest influences on how much costs go up will be attributable to the economy's resurgence, as well as whether health costs remain modest or go back to where they've been historically, which are higher.
"History suggests that previous efforts to control healthcare costs have had only a temporary effect, and there are initial signs that the recent slowdown – independent of the effects of the economy – is beginning to wane," the researchers reported.
At the same time, however, researchers said the combination of the improving economy and the effects of the ACA will ultimately determine the rate of overall healthcare cost growth.
Should they elevate, business owners and consumers should not immediately conclude that it's because of the ACA, the authors contend. A rise in prices may be more coincidental than causal.
Other studies suggest otherwise. In new research published by the Society of Actuaries, once all of the provisions of the ACA take effect, underlying claim costs could swell by an average of 32 percent nationwide as soon as 2017. Among certain states, however, the ACA may help reduce healthcare costs, falling by as much as 14 percent in New York, 13 percent in Massachusetts and 12 percent in Vermont.
